This plot provides a look at the progression of the smoothed NWRA effective sunspot number (SSNe) for solar cycles 23 and 24. The heavy solid curve is the smoothed SSNe (centered 13-month average), the light solid curve is the monthly average SSNe, and the dashed curve is a sunspot number calculated from the smoothed F10.7 solar flux. The foF2 and 10.7cm solar flux data used in these calculations were obtained from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
The red curves show a very simple prediction for SSNe that assumes the upcoming solar minimum will be in December 2019 at SSNe=-5 (based on the minimum SSNe value reached in the previous cycle). The dotted red curves show an estimated uncertainty in this simple prediction scheme. (This prediction is not based on either the SWPC or the NASA predictions for the smoothed sunspot number, neither of which has been updated for several years.)
Please note that the SSNe values plotted here were calculated in near real-time from a limited data set. If you are interested in post-analysis SSNe values calculated from a more representative data set, please contact NWRA.
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