This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2018 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2018 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 12/1929Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1208 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 068 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 069 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/15 :NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Nov 12 22:40:42 UTC 2018Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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