This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2018 Jan 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2018 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 17/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jan). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 071 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 072 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-007/008-011/015 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/35 Minor Storm 01/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 10/25/45 :NWRA: File downloaded: Wed Jan 17 22:40:35 UTC 2018Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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