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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2019

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1670 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 Aug).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 068
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 068

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  006/005-006/005-007/008

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/15
:NWRA: File downloaded: Sat Aug 17 22:40:49 UTC 2019
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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