This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2019 Mar 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2019 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 20/1118Z from Region 2736 (N09W35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 19/2328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (23 Mar). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 077 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/005-005/005-017/030 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/40 Major-severe storm 01/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/65 :NWRA: File downloaded: Wed Mar 20 22:35:45 UTC 2019Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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