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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2020

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 27/1259Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/2156Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 791 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Mar).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 069
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 071

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  006/005-006/005-009/012

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/55
:NWRA: File downloaded: Fri Mar 27 22:40:33 UTC 2020
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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