This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2020 Feb 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2020 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/0648Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1568 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 070 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 071 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 006/005-006/008-008/008 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/25/25 :NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Feb 24 22:40:36 UTC 2020Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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