This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2019 Jul 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2019 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 19/0343Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 18/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1824 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Jul, 22 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (21 Jul). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jul 067 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 069 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/008-005/005-007/008 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 25/15/25 :NWRA: File downloaded: Fri Jul 19 22:40:45 UTC 2019Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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