This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2018 May 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2018 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 27/2003Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 May, 29 May) and quiet levels on day three (30 May). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 May 075 Predicted 28 May-30 May 073/072/072 90 Day Mean 27 May 070 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 008/008-008/008-005/005 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 25/25/05 :NWRA: File downloaded: Sun May 27 22:40:36 UTC 2018Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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