This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Mar 177 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 170/170/168 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 162 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/005-014/018-015/020 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/40/40 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/65/65 ===================================================================== :NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Mon Mar 18 22:41:18 UTC 2024Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC |
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