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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar,
21 Mar).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/2007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 355 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 177
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 170/170/168
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 162

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/005-014/018-015/020

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/65/65
=====================================================================
:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Mon Mar 18 22:41:18 UTC 2024
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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