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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2017

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 24/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/1322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
25/1629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17618 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May), unsettled to active
levels on day two (27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(28 May).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 076
Predicted   26 May-28 May 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        25 May 076

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  010/012-015/020-008/010

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20
:NWRA: File downloaded: Thu May 25 22:40:40 UTC 2017
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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