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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2018

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 12/1929Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/1408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1208 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 068
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 069

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15
:NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Nov 12 22:40:42 UTC 2018
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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