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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2020

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/0648Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2139Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1568 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 070
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 071

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  006/005-006/008-008/008

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/25
:NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Feb 24 22:40:36 UTC 2020
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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