This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2017 Sep 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2017 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 25/0758Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1050 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Sep). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Sep 090 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 082 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 006/005-016/025-024/032 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor Storm 05/30/40 Major-severe storm 01/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/65/80 :NWRA: File downloaded: Mon Sep 25 22:40:38 UTC 2017Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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