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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2017

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/0456Z from Region 2645 (S09E44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Mar).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 781 km/s at 28/0711Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 27/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 28/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14903 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (31 Mar).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 084
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 084/084/083
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 076

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  034/052
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  026/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  022/030-020/024-015/020

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/15
:NWRA: File downloaded: Tue Mar 28 22:40:50 UTC 2017
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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