This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2017 Mar 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2017 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0456Z from Region 2645 (S09E44). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (31 Mar). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 781 km/s at 28/0711Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14903 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (29 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Mar 084 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 084/084/083 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 076 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 034/052 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 026/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 022/030-020/024-015/020 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/25/15 :NWRA: File downloaded: Tue Mar 28 22:40:50 UTC 2017Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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