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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Weather Agency Space Weather Operation Center (AFWA/XOGX, located at Offutt AFB, NE)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2017

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 555 km/s at 26/2314Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
26/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16547 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 068
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 068/068/072
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 076

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  007/007-005/005-006/005

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10
:NWRA: File downloaded: Thu Jul 27 22:40:34 UTC 2017
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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