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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2019

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 403 km/s at 19/0343Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1824 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Jul, 22
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (21 Jul).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 067
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 069

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  006/008-005/005-007/008

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/25
:NWRA: File downloaded: Fri Jul 19 22:40:45 UTC 2019
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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