This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2019 Mar 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2019 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 16/2240Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 675 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Mar, 20 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (19 Mar). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Mar 069 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 071 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 007/008-005/005-009/010 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/15/30 :NWRA: File downloaded: Sun Mar 17 22:35:46 UTC 2019Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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