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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2018

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
May, 29 May, 30 May).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 27/2003Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/1000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 320 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 May, 29 May)
and quiet levels on day three (30 May).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 075
Predicted   28 May-30 May 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        27 May 070

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  008/008-008/008-005/005

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/05
:NWRA: File downloaded: Sun May 27 22:40:36 UTC 2018
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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