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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2019

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 16/2240Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 17/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 17/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 675 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Mar, 20
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (19 Mar).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 069
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 071

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  007/008-005/005-009/010

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/30
:NWRA: File downloaded: Sun Mar 17 22:35:46 UTC 2019
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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