This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2019 Aug 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2019 ===================================================================== IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ===================================================================== IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug). ===================================================================== IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1670 pfu. ===================================================================== IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Aug). ===================================================================== III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green ===================================================================== IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Aug 068 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 068 ===================================================================== V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 006/005-006/005-007/008 ===================================================================== VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/15 :NWRA: File downloaded: Sat Aug 17 22:40:49 UTC 2019Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC
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