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Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

This message is a joint product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC) and the USAF Space Weather Flight.

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2019 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2019

=====================================================================
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
=====================================================================
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

=====================================================================
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 330 km/s at 04/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/0052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 191 pfu.
=====================================================================
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07
Dec).

=====================================================================
III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

=====================================================================
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 070
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 069

=====================================================================
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

=====================================================================
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
:NWRA: File downloaded: Wed Dec 4 22:41:06 UTC 2019
 
Updated daily at approx. 2235 UTC

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