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Long-Term Prediction of SSN and F10 for Solar Cycle 24

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as modified by JAS.

NOTE: This page shows a modified version of the SWPC long-term prediction for smoothed sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7cm solar flux (SSF). The SSN values here are the same as those from the official SWPC prediction, but the SSF values (last three columns) have been replaced by what I believe to be more realistic values. The SWPC product is a prediction of the SSN with SSF values calculated from those predicted values using what I believe to be an unrealistic algorithm. The algorithm used to convert the SSN predictions to corresponding values for the SSF was derived from analysis of data from 1990 to 2016. The algorithm used here is as follows:

For SSN <= 50 : F10 = 67.00 + 0.4903 * SSN

For SSN > 50 : F10 = 56.06 + 0.7092 * SSN

:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2017 Nov 06 0400 UTC
:Modified: 2017 Nov 16 2240 UTC
# SSN Prediction:
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# F10.7 Prediction: Modified by J. Secan, Seattle, WA
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted SSN values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# Predicted F10.7 values are based on the predicted SSN values and were calculated using
#   a more realistic relationship between SSN and F10.7 than that used by the SWPC.
#
#         Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
#                     With Expected Ranges
#         -----Sunspot Number------  ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2017 05        14.7    15.7    13.7       74.2    74.7    73.7
2017 06        15.4    17.4    13.4       74.6    75.5    73.6
2017 07        15.8    18.8    12.8       74.7    76.2    73.3
2017 08        16.0    21.0    11.0       74.8    77.3    72.4
2017 09        16.3    21.3    11.3       75.0    77.4    72.5
2017 10        16.4    22.4    10.4       75.0    78.0    72.1
2017 11        16.3    23.3     9.3       75.0    78.4    71.6
2017 12        16.6    23.6     9.6       75.1    78.6    71.7
2018 01        16.7    24.7     8.7       75.2    79.1    71.3
2018 02        16.5    25.5     7.5       75.1    79.5    70.7
2018 03        15.6    24.6     6.6       74.6    79.1    70.2
2018 04        15.1    25.1     5.1       74.4    79.3    69.5
2018 05        14.8    24.8     4.8       74.3    79.2    69.4
2018 06        13.7    23.7     3.7       73.7    78.6    68.8
2018 07        12.9    22.9     2.9       73.3    78.2    68.4
2018 08        12.2    22.2     2.2       73.0    77.9    68.1
2018 09        11.5    21.5     1.5       72.6    77.5    67.7
2018 10        10.8    20.8     0.8       72.3    77.2    67.4
2018 11        10.1    20.1     0.1       72.0    76.9    67.0
2018 12         9.5    19.5     0.0       71.7    76.6    67.0
2019 01         8.9    18.9     0.0       71.4    76.3    67.0
2019 02         8.3    18.3     0.0       71.1    76.0    67.0
2019 03         7.8    17.8     0.0       70.8    75.7    67.0
2019 04         7.3    17.3     0.0       70.6    75.5    67.0
2019 05         6.8    16.8     0.0       70.3    75.2    67.0
2019 06         6.4    16.4     0.0       70.1    75.0    67.0
2019 07         5.9    15.9     0.0       69.9    74.8    67.0
2019 08         5.5    15.5     0.0       69.7    74.6    67.0
2019 09         5.1    15.1     0.0       69.5    74.4    67.0
2019 10         4.8    14.8     0.0       69.4    74.3    67.0
2019 11         4.4    14.4     0.0       69.2    74.1    67.0
2019 12         4.1    14.1     0.0       69.0    73.9    67.0
:NWRA: File downloaded: Thu Nov 16 22:40:44 UTC 2017
 

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