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Long-Term Prediction of SSN and F10 for Solar Cycle 24

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as modified by JAS.

NOTE: This page shows a modified version of the SWPC long-term prediction for smoothed sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7cm solar flux (SSF). The SSN values here are the same as those from the official SWPC prediction, but the SSF values (last three columns) have been replaced by what I believe to be more realistic values. The SWPC product is a prediction of the SSN with SSF values calculated from those predicted values using what I believe to be an unrealistic algorithm. The algorithm used to convert the SSN predictions to corresponding values for the SSF was derived from analysis of data from 1990 to 2016. The algorithm used here is as follows:

For SSN <= 50 : F10 = 67.00 + 0.4903 * SSN

For SSN > 50 : F10 = 56.06 + 0.7092 * SSN

:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2019 Nov 04 0100 UTC
:Modified: 2019 Nov 19 2240 UTC
# SSN Prediction:
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# F10.7 Prediction: Modified by J. Secan, Seattle, WA
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted SSN values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# Notes added by JAS
# 1.  Predicted F10.7 values are based on the predicted SSN values and were calculated using
#     a more realistic relationship between SSN and F10.7 than that used by the SWPC.
# 2.  Predictions in SWPC product beyond Dec 2020 removed until a formal prediction for
#     Cycle 25 is released.  Use values beyond Dec 2019 with caution.
#
#         Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
#                     With Expected Ranges
#         -----Sunspot Number------  ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2019 05         2.5     3.5     1.5       68.2    68.7    67.7
2019 06         2.7     4.7     0.7       68.3    69.3    67.3
2019 07         2.7     5.7     0.0       68.3    69.8    67.0
2019 08         2.8     7.8     0.0       68.4    70.8    67.0
2019 09         2.9     7.9     0.0       68.4    70.9    67.0
2019 10         2.7     8.7     0.0       68.3    71.3    67.0
2019 11         2.4     9.4     0.0       68.2    71.6    67.0
2019 12         2.4     9.4     0.0       68.2    71.6    67.0
2020 01         2.5    10.5     0.0       68.2    72.1    67.0
2020 02         2.7    11.7     0.0       68.3    72.7    67.0
2020 03         2.8    11.8     0.0       68.4    72.8    67.0
2020 04         2.9    12.9     0.0       68.4    73.3    67.0
2020 05         2.9    12.9     0.0       68.4    73.3    67.0
2020 06         2.6    12.6     0.0       68.3    73.2    67.0
2020 07         2.4    12.4     0.0       68.2    73.1    67.0
2020 08         2.2    12.2     0.0       68.1    73.0    67.0
2020 09         2.0    12.0     0.0       68.0    72.9    67.0
2020 10         1.9    11.9     0.0       67.9    72.8    67.0
2020 11         1.7    11.7     0.0       67.8    72.7    67.0
2020 12         1.6    11.6     0.0       67.8    72.7    67.0
:NWRA: File downloaded: Tue Nov 19 22:40:44 UTC 2019
 

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