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Long-Term Prediction of SSN and F10 for Solar Cycle 24

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as modified by JAS.

NOTE: This page shows a modified version of the SWPC long-term prediction for smoothed sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7cm solar flux (SSF). The SSN values here are the same as those from the official SWPC prediction, but the SSF values (last three columns) have been replaced by what I believe to be more realistic values. The SWPC product is a prediction of the SSN with SSF values calculated from those predicted values using what I believe to be an unrealistic algorithm. The algorithm used to convert the SSN predictions to corresponding values for the SSF was derived from analysis of data from 1990 to 2016. The algorithm used here is as follows:

For SSN <= 50 : F10 = 67.00 + 0.4903 * SSN

For SSN > 50 : F10 = 56.06 + 0.7092 * SSN

:Predicted_Sunspot_Numbers_and_Radio_Flux: Predict.txt
:Created: 2018 Dec 03 1800 UTC
:Modified: 2018 Dec 11 2240 UTC
# SSN Prediction:
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
# F10.7 Prediction: Modified by J. Secan, Seattle, WA
#
# Sunspot Number: S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number.
# 10.7cm Radio Flux value: Penticton, B.C. Canada.
# Predicted SSN values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel.
#
# Predicted F10.7 values are based on the predicted SSN values and were calculated using
#   a more realistic relationship between SSN and F10.7 than that used by the SWPC.
#
#         Predicted Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values
#                     With Expected Ranges
#         -----Sunspot Number------  ----10.7 cm Radio Flux----
# YR MO   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW   PREDICTED    HIGH    LOW
#--------------------------------------------------------------
2018 06         4.7     5.7     3.7       69.3    69.8    68.8
2018 07         5.1     7.1     3.1       69.5    70.5    68.5
2018 08         5.4     8.4     2.4       69.6    71.1    68.2
2018 09         5.7    10.7     0.7       69.8    72.2    67.3
2018 10         6.1    11.1     1.1       70.0    72.4    67.5
2018 11         6.1    12.1     0.1       70.0    72.9    67.0
2018 12         5.9    12.9     0.0       69.9    73.3    67.0
2019 01         6.0    13.0     0.0       69.9    73.4    67.0
2019 02         6.2    14.2     0.0       70.0    74.0    67.0
2019 03         6.4    15.4     0.0       70.1    74.6    67.0
2019 04         6.6    15.6     0.0       70.2    74.6    67.0
2019 05         6.7    16.7     0.0       70.3    75.2    67.0
2019 06         6.5    16.5     0.0       70.2    75.1    67.0
2019 07         5.9    15.9     0.0       69.9    74.8    67.0
2019 08         5.5    15.5     0.0       69.7    74.6    67.0
2019 09         5.1    15.1     0.0       69.5    74.4    67.0
2019 10         4.8    14.8     0.0       69.4    74.3    67.0
2019 11         4.4    14.4     0.0       69.2    74.1    67.0
2019 12         4.1    14.1     0.0       69.0    73.9    67.0
2020 01         3.8    13.8     0.0       68.9    73.8    67.0
2020 02         3.6    13.6     0.0       68.8    73.7    67.0
2020 03         3.3    13.3     0.0       68.6    73.5    67.0
2020 04         3.0    13.0     0.0       68.5    73.4    67.0
2020 05         2.8    12.8     0.0       68.4    73.3    67.0
2020 06         2.6    12.6     0.0       68.3    73.2    67.0
2020 07         2.4    12.4     0.0       68.2    73.1    67.0
2020 08         2.2    12.2     0.0       68.1    73.0    67.0
2020 09         2.0    12.0     0.0       68.0    72.9    67.0
2020 10         1.9    11.9     0.0       67.9    72.8    67.0
2020 11         1.7    11.7     0.0       67.8    72.7    67.0
2020 12         1.6    11.6     0.0       67.8    72.7    67.0
2021 01         1.5    11.5     0.0       67.7    72.6    67.0
2021 02         1.3    11.3     0.0       67.6    72.5    67.0
2021 03         1.2    11.2     0.0       67.6    72.5    67.0
2021 04         1.1    11.1     0.0       67.5    72.4    67.0
2021 05         1.0    11.0     0.0       67.5    72.4    67.0
2021 06         0.9    10.9     0.0       67.4    72.3    67.0
2021 07         0.9    10.9     0.0       67.4    72.3    67.0
2021 08         0.8    10.8     0.0       67.4    72.3    67.0
2021 09         0.7    10.7     0.0       67.3    72.2    67.0
2021 10         0.7    10.7     0.0       67.3    72.2    67.0
2021 11         0.6    10.6     0.0       67.3    72.2    67.0
2021 12         0.5    10.5     0.0       67.2    72.1    67.0
2022 01         0.5    10.5     0.0       67.2    72.1    67.0
2022 02         0.4    10.4     0.0       67.2    72.1    67.0
2022 03         0.4    10.4     0.0       67.2    72.1    67.0
2022 04         0.4    10.4     0.0       67.2    72.1    67.0
2022 05         0.3    10.3     0.0       67.1    72.1    67.0
2022 06         0.3    10.3     0.0       67.1    72.1    67.0
2022 07         0.3    10.3     0.0       67.1    72.1    67.0
2022 08         0.2    10.2     0.0       67.1    72.0    67.0
2022 09         0.2    10.2     0.0       67.1    72.0    67.0
2022 10         0.2    10.2     0.0       67.1    72.0    67.0
2022 11         0.2    10.2     0.0       67.1    72.0    67.0
2022 12         0.2    10.2     0.0       67.1    72.0    67.0
:NWRA: File downloaded: Tue Dec 11 22:40:47 UTC 2018
 

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