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SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Oct 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was high. Region 3110 (N17W52, Dao/beta) produced an X1
flare (R3-Strong) at 02/1953 UTC, the largest event of the period. In
addition, Region 3110 produced an impulsive M8/1n flare (R2-Moderate) at
02/0221 UTC. Region 3110 increased in area and spot count, and
maintained a curious magnetic configuration throughout the day. Region
3112 (N23E59, Fki, beta-gamma-delta) produced two M1 flares at 02/1405
and 02/1545 UTC, and was the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the disk. Minor growth was observed in Region 3113 (N16W40,
Dai/beta), while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay.

Three CMEs from 01 Oct have been analyzed. The first CME was off the W
limb at 01/1253 UTC in STEREO A COR2 imagery, and was associated with an
approximate 22 degree long filament eruption centered near N15W14. The
second and third CMEs were associated M-flare activity on 01 Oct and
were observed off the NW limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2036 UTC and
02/0236 UTC. Model output suggests the final CME overtaking the two
earlier CMEs en route, and arriving at earth at around 04/0000 UTC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be high with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
flare activity and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flare activity over
03-05 Oct.
=====================================================================

Energetic Particles
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed enhancements above background
levels in response to flare activity from Region 3110, but remained
below event levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal
to moderate levels.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
There is a chance for minor (S1-Minor) radiation storm conditions over
03-05 Oct due to the location of Region 3110 and the flare potential of
Region 3112. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.
=====================================================================

Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was dominated by low density values this
period. A discontinuity in the IMF was observed at 02/1950 UTC, when the
Bz component sharply increased to -8 nT. It is unclear whether or not
this was a physical phenomena or a product of low density values.
However, it does appear to be a CIR in advance of an anticipated
positive polarity CH HSS.
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.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced late on 03
Oct/early on 04 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from
01 Oct.
=====================================================================

Geospace
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled active levels until the
last period when active to G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm levels (G1-Minor)
on 03 Oct, and moderate storm levels (G2-Moderate) early on 04 Oct,
due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 01 Oct. Quiet to active
conditions are predicted on 05 Oct.
=====================================================================
:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Mon Oct 3 01:41:26 UTC 2022
 
Updated twice daily at approx. 0045 and 1245 UTC

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