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SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W55,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for two M1.1 flares and numerous
C-class flares. This AR continued to be the largest, most complex region
on the visible disk. Region 3617 (S14W18, Hsx/alpha) exhibited signs of
decay, and Region 3623 (S19W55, L=223) decayed to plage. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

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.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares
(R3/Strong), over 28-30 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of
Region 3615.
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Energetic Particle
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but
below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at
normal to moderate levels.
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.Forecast...
A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 30
Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. There is a
chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels
beginning on 28 Mar.
=====================================================================

Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the
Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 4-5 nT, and the Bz component was
mostly northward. Solar wind speeds averaged 500 km/s. Phi was
predominantly positive .
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.Forecast...
Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return 28 Mar.
Slighted elevated parameters are possible on 29-30 Mar with CH HSS
influences.
=====================================================================

Geospace
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.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
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.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 28 Mar with a return
of isolated unsettled periods by late on 29-30 Mar under negative
polarity CH HSS effects.
=====================================================================
:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Thu Mar 28 01:41:19 UTC 2024
 
Updated twice daily at approx. 0045 and 1245 UTC

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