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SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2023 Feb 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity observed from Regions
3207 (S13E10, Cao/beta) and 3211 (S16W29, Cao/beta). All active regions
with sunspots were either stable or in decay. A filament eruption
centered near S15E50 was observed at 04/0040 UTC. The associated CME is
not expected to be Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 05-07 Feb.
=====================================================================

Energetic Particle
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
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.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 05-07 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.
=====================================================================

Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
Background solar wind conditions were observed this period. Solar wind
speeds were steady between 300-350 km/s, total field strength varied
between 4-8 nT, and Bz ranged between +4/-7 nT.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected on 05 Feb. An enhanced solar
wind environment is expected over 06-07 Feb in response to negative
polarity CH HSS influences.
=====================================================================

Geospace
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are expected on 05 Feb under an ambient solar wind
environment. Unsettled levels are expected on 06 Feb, and active
conditions are expected on 07 Feb, in response to negative polarity CH
HSS influences.
=====================================================================
:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Sun Feb 5 01:41:54 UTC 2023
 
Updated twice daily at approx. 0045 and 1245 UTC

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