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SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Jan 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels following an M5/1f flare (R2-moderate
radio blackouts) at 20/0601 UTC from Region 2929 (N08W79, Dao/beta).
Also associated with this flare was a 10 cm radio burst (340 sfu), a
Type II (est. speed 359 km/s) radio sweep, and a Type IV radio sweep.
This region didnt appear to change much, but foreshortening is now
inhibiting an accurate analysis of its magnetic complexity. Region 2930
(N22W80, Dao/beta) was mostly unchanged (also foreshortened), but did
produce B-flare activity. Region 2933 (S22W42, Cao/beta) showed signs of
decay in its trailer and was absent of significant flaring. Region 2927
(S20W73, Axx/alpha) was unremarkable and quiet. New Region 2934 (S24E77,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was quiet and stable.

The CME associated with the M1/Sf flare on 18/1744 UTC was analyzed and
determined to have a possible glancing blow at Earth. CME passage is
likely to occur on 22 Jan based on the speed and trajectory of the
ejecta.

The CME associated with the M5/1f flare was analyzed with initial
findings indicating a trajectory well west of Earth. Additional analysis
may be accomplished to confirm these results.

A third CME was observed in STEREO coronagraph imagery beginning at
approximately 20/0853 UTC. Initial indications show the CME was
associated with coronal dimming that occurred near Region 2933 at
approximately 20/0800 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as more imagery
becomes available.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely
and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio
blackouts) on 20-21 Jan due to the flare history of Region 2929. By 22
Jan, activity should return to very low levels as Region 2929 rotates
around the western limb.

=====================================================================

Energetic Particles
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak
flux of 3,170 pfu at 19/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reached S1-Minor storm levels following the M5/1f flare mentioned above.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
20-22 Jan due to CH HSS/CME influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to be at S1-Minor storm levels before returning to
background levels on 21-22 Jan.

=====================================================================

Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME and CH HSS influence
influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 590 km/s, then
decreased to average near 500 km/s. Total field strength was at 5 nT or
below, while Bz had no significant southward deviations throughout the
period. Phi was variable, but trended more in a negative orientation the
latter half of the period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated throughout the
forecast period as combined CH HSS and CME effects taper on 20-21 Jan.
An additional enhancement is possible on 22 Jan as weak, glancing blow
effects arrive from the 18 Jan CME.
=====================================================================

Geospace
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field returned to mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of 20 Jan and into 21 Jan as combined CH HSS/CME influence
steadily weakens. Quiet to unsettled levels should persist on 22 Jan as
weak effects from the 18 Jan CME arrive.
=====================================================================
:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Thu Jan 20 13:41:02 UTC 2022
 
Updated twice daily at approx. 0045 and 1245 UTC

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