SWPC Forecast Discussion

This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2023 Jun 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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Solar Activity
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.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) as newly numbered
Region 3324 (N15W12, Bxo/beta) produced an impulsive M1.5 flare at
02/0241 UTC. The region decayed slightly to a Bxo group. Region 3315
(S17W88, Dao/beta) produced a C3.9 flare at 02/1411 UTC as the region
departed the visible disk. A C3.3 flare was observed from new Region
3326 (N25E73, Hsx/alpha) at 02/1524 UTC. Region 3323 (S07E45,
Esi/beta-gamma) produced a C6.3 flare at 02/2242 UTC. New Region 3325
(N11W02, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period. The remaining six regions
were stable with no notable changes during the period. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.
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.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
and a slight chance for X-class flares on 03-05 Jun.
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Energetic Particles
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.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
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.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels 04-05 June. There is a slight chance the 10 MeV proton
flux measured at GOES-16 could reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 05
Jun.
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Solar Wind
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.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment began the period mildly enhanced before
returning to a more ambient state by about 02/0300 UTC. Total field
strength peaked near 5 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between
+2/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decayed through the period from about
445 km/s to near 360 km/s. The phi angle was oriented towards the Sun
(negative).
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.Forecast...
Positive polarity CH HSSs are forecast to become geoeffective on 03 Jun,
with effects lasting through 05 Jun.
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Geospace
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.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
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.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 03 Jun with the onset of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Gradual improvements are expected on 04 Jun
with unsettled to active levels followed by quiet to unsettled
conditions on 05 Jun.
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:NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Sat Jun 3 01:41:19 UTC 2023