This message is a product of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center(SWPC)
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Mar 28 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ===================================================================== Solar Activity --------------------------------------------------------------------- .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W55, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for two M1.1 flares and numerous C-class flares. This AR continued to be the largest, most complex region on the visible disk. Region 3617 (S14W18, Hsx/alpha) exhibited signs of decay, and Region 3623 (S19W55, L=223) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. --------------------------------------------------------------------- .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 28-30 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3615. ===================================================================== Energetic Particle --------------------------------------------------------------------- .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated, but below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. --------------------------------------------------------------------- .Forecast... A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 30 Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels beginning on 28 Mar. ===================================================================== Solar Wind --------------------------------------------------------------------- .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Mar. Total field was between 4-5 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward. Solar wind speeds averaged 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive . --------------------------------------------------------------------- .Forecast... Ambient-like solar wind conditions are expected to return 28 Mar. Slighted elevated parameters are possible on 29-30 Mar with CH HSS influences. ===================================================================== Geospace --------------------------------------------------------------------- .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. --------------------------------------------------------------------- .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 28 Mar with a return of isolated unsettled periods by late on 29-30 Mar under negative polarity CH HSS effects. ===================================================================== :NWRA: File downloaded/formatted: Thu Mar 28 01:41:19 UTC 2024Updated twice daily at approx. 0045 and 1245 UTC |
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